01/07/2008 If we are to believe the international press, a US-Israeli war against Iran is now a serious possibility.

 
Senior US defense officials are concerned that Israel may attack Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of the year, according to an ABC News report on Tuesday. A top Pentagon official was quoted in the report as saying there is an "increasing likelihood" that Israel will carry out an attack, leaving Washington concerned that Iran would strike both the United States and Israel in retaliation.
 
According to the official, there is an "increasing likelihood" of such an attack as Iran approaches two "red lines" in Israel's view: "The first is the point when Iran produces enough highly enriched uranium to develop a nuclear weapon - something that could happen in 2009 and perhaps even by the end of 2008", according to US and Israeli assessments.
 
"The red line is not when they get to that point, but before they get to that point," the official was quoted as saying. "We are in the window of vulnerability." The second trigger, according to the official, would be linked to Iran's acquisition of the SA-20 air defense system it is purchasing from Russia.
 
Adding to the drumbeat for a Western attack on Iran, the official said Israel may be likely to attack Iran before the system is put into place and Tehran's deterrence bolstered. Washington is also concerned that Israel may carry out an attack before the next US president is sworn in, according to the report.
 
Last week former US Ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton, said he believes Israel will stage a raid against Iran's nuclear facilities if Democratic nominee Senator Barack Obama wins the upcoming US presidential elections.
 
Bolton said the IAF would likely strike in the interim term between election day (November 4th) and the inauguration (January 20th 2009) – while George W. Bush is still in office.
 
"I don’t think they will do anything before our election because they don’t want to affect it. And they’d have to make a judgment whether to go during the remainder of President Bush’s term in office or wait for his successor."
 
JUNE IAF EXERCISE NOT REHEARSAL BUT TRAINING
The revelation of a recent Israeli military exercise in the Mediterranean only added fuel to fire. Also quoting a senior Pentagon official, the large-scale Israeli air force exercise conducted in early June was "not a rehearsal, but a basic and fundamental training" for an attack on Iran.
 
"The IAF has already conducted the basic exercise necessary to tell their senior leadership, 'We have the fundamentals down,'" the official said. "Might they need some more training and rehearsals? Yes. But have they done the fundamentals? I think that is what we saw."
 
He added that additional such drills were to be expected as a possible operation nears. The report added that Pentagon officials believe an Israeli attack could not destroy Iran's nuclear program, and would only do temporary damage.
 
The June 28 arrival in Israel of Adm. Michael Mullen, Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, who was to meet with his Israeli counterpart, provoked considerable speculation that Israel might be seeking US approval for such an attack, or that the two nations were jointly planning to strike Iran.
 
Iran has moved ballistic missiles into launch positions, with Israel’s Dimona nuclear plant among the possible targets, the London-based Times newspaper reported Sunday, quoting defense sources.